By Will Walker
Syria will observe a ceasefire during the Eid-al-Adha celebrations. The festival commemorates and celebrates Abraham’s willingness to sacrifice his son to show his loyalty to God. Concerns grow, however, that although the politicians may approve a ceasefire Assad’s authority has already been proven to be ineffectual so the question is begged – will the peace hold?
The previous attempt at a ceasefire backed by the UN in April was a disaster and did nothing to halt the Free Syrian Army in their insurgency against the Assad government. Following this failure Kofi Annan resigned his UN position, with some viewing this as the UN’s failure to navigate a successful solution to the crisis which has already claimed 30,000 lives and displaced over 1 million people.
As the embattled country prepares for a much-needed respite tensions amass within the ever-increasing disparate rebel groups – each with a different view on how best to steer a non-Assad held country. Assad’s eventual ejection may already be a foregone conclusion and so the rebels work towards planning for Syria’s future.
International intervention remains muted, although the UN and some EU countries recently began offering non-military aid to the rebels. Countries like Turkey and Iran seem to have the most interest in the region. Following the shelling of a Turkish border town the political attitude in Syria’s northern neighbour, and former Assad ally, has changed considerably. Iran, meanwhile, continues to supply Hezbollah forces in support of Assad and it is support such as this which lead some analysts to suggest that Syria has become a proxy battleground between the Sunni rebels and the Alawite elite.
Meanwhile US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton warms of “even greater instability” following a bomb attack in Lebanon which has been blamed on Syria. If the Arab Spring showed the world anything it is that the longer these issues are left unresolved the greater the conflagration. There is a clear sentiment that the rebels will become increasingly radicalised as the death tolls rise and no clear resolution is reached.
